The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai at the end of 2023 resulted in a historic agreement calling for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal in an effort to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This agreement was a response to the IPCC report, stating that the world has less than a decade to avoid irreversible impacts of climate change.
Fossil fuels are the primary contributors to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the most influential greenhouse gas affecting climate change.
According to the Global Carbon Budget, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion reached a record high in 2023, approximately 37.5 billion tons. Most of these emissions come from both developed and developing nations with high energy consumption rates.
However, reducing the use of fossil fuels doesn’t only impact consumer nations but also supplier nations, particularly in the Middle East. The Middle East holds over half of the world’s total oil reserves, playing a crucial role in the global oil market.
Saudi Arabia holds about 36%, followed by Iraq 16%, UAE 14%, Iran 13%, Kuwait 13%, Libya 4%, Oman 1%, Qatar 1%, Yemen 1%, and Algeria 1%.
Oil serves as the primary source of income for Middle Eastern nations, heavily reliant on oil exports to fund national budgets, infrastructure development, social welfare, and political stability.
According to OPEC data, in 2023, OPEC member countries in the Middle East earned $1.023 trillion from oil exports, equivalent to 77% of their total export revenue.
With the COP28 agreement, Middle Eastern countries face significant challenges in adapting to the global energy transition from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energy sources.
This transition will impact the region’s economy, environment, and geopolitics. Below are some potential impacts and challenges these countries might face due to the end of fossil fuels:
